Looking for the best football draw predictions this weekend? We’ve analysed fixtures from England and Europe’s top leagues to find the strongest draw candidates, combining form, head-to-head records, draw trends and a healthy dose of opinion to uncover value where others only see stalemates.
Discover the best football draw predictions with data-driven analysis, opinion, draw trends, and expert picks from England & Europe’s top leagues. And leagues that aren’t quite as top.
They say there can only be winners and losers in sport, but of course they’re wrong. They’re fools. There’s always another result, a special one for learned sporting fans: the draw.
And who doesn’t love a draw where no one loses? The real winners include canny punters who look for value, and The Gurgler website is always happy to help with predictions, opinion and stats, so welcome to our Football Draw Predictions Weekly for another weekend of balanced football.
Our resident draw expert Frankington Stanley runs his keen eye over the many football divisions around the world to find the best draws for you. He’s sort of like the John West of football draws, he hates Dog Salmon and lop-sided fixtures. The fewer the goals the better too.
Frankington Stanley is not fussy, no country or continent is out of bounds, and the more obscure the better. And some of them are quite obscure, just the way he likes it. So enjoy another weekly serving of the finest Football Draw Predictions from all over the world, where The Gurgler and Frankington Stanley take the stale out of stalemate.
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Football Draw Predictions Weekly
DRAW OF THE WEEK
England » National League Premier – 2026/2027 » Solihull Moors-Carlisle
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 24-Oct-26
Stats: These two teams have only met twice, and both games ended in draws. What more do you need and/or want to know.
Prediction: Solihull Moors 1 Carlisle 1
OTHER FOOTBALL DRAW PREDICTIONS
England » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Crystal Palace-Newcastle
Kick off:14:00 Date: Sun, 25-Oct-26
Stats: Three of the last five games between Crystal Palace and Newcastle at Crystal Palace have ended in a draw. Looking further back, six of the last 11 meetings at Crystal Palace have also ended in a draw. Both sides have won only one and lost two at home and away respectively, and the stats suggest Crystal Palace were fortunate to achieve that against Nottingham Forest.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 Newcastle 1
England » League One – 2026/2027 » Burton-Leyton Orient
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 24-Oct-26
Stats: Three of the last six between these sides ended in a draw, either 2-2 or 0-0. Burton are currently W1 D4 L1 at home this season, while Leyton Orient’s last three games away from home were DDL. Leyton Orient have conceded just two goals from five away games.
Prediction: Burton 0 Leyton Orient 0
England » League Two – 2026/2027 » Crawley-Tranmere
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 24-Oct-26
Stats: A classic set of odds for a draw, with both sides priced at $2.60 and the draw at $3.20, which is a hint the betting shops think draw, and so should you. Crawley have just sacked their manager. Maybe it’s the D1 L4 home record. So at least there’s a draw in there, and Crawley may just settle for that, as a team in last place in the fourth division may not get the full new manager bounce of other clubs. Half of Tranmere’s away games have ended in a draw.
Prediction: Crawley 1 Tranmere 1
Egypt » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Olympic El Qanah FC-Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI
Kick off: 18:00 Date: Fri, 30-Oct-26
Stats: Olympic El Qanah FC have three draws from three home games this season – all of them 1-1. Their opponents Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI aren’t travelling that well sitting 17th of 20 teams on the ladder with a W1 D1 L5 record, with their solitary draw at least coming on the road from three away games.
Prediction: Olympic El Qanah FC 0 Al Sharkeyah-ENPPI 0
Spain » LaLiga – 2026/2027 » Celta Vigo-Real Betis
Kick off: 15:15 Date: Sun, 25-Oct-26
Stats: The last two and three of the past four games between these sides ended in a draw. Celta Vigo also have five draws from their nine games so far. Real Betis drew their last away game. Note for next time: Celta Vigo have drawn all four away games this season.
Prediction: Celta Vigo 1 Real Betis 1
Netherlands » Eredivisie – 2026/2027 » Willem II-Cambuur
Kick off: 17:45 Date: Sat, 24-Oct-26
Stats: Three of the last five games between these sides have ended in a draw. Cambuur have drawn two of their four away games this season in Holland. Willem II only have one draw to show from their four home games so far this season; the rest have been losses. Just like you.
Prediction: Willem II 1 Cambuur 1
DRAW STATS
Want to know which leagues produce the most draws in case the selections above aren’t enough? Of course you do, and so here are the draw % results from the past three seasons.
Current Draw % Major Football Leagues
| Rank | League | Draw % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | League Two | 34.5% |
| 2 | La Liga | 32.4% |
| 3 | Premier League | 28.6% |
| 4 | League One | 28.6% |
| 5 | Championship | 28.0% |
| 6 | Ligue 1 | 23.8% |
| 7 | Bundesliga | 20.4% |
| 8 | Serie A | 17.1% |
Top 10 Draw % Other Football Leagues
| Rank | League | Draw % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenya Premier League | 44.44% |
| 2 | Saudi Arabia Division 1 | 42.03% |
| 3 | Australia A-League Men | 40.00% |
| 4 | Iran Pro League | 37.50% |
| 5 | Italy Serie C (Group A) | 37.00% |
| 6 | South Africa Premiership (PSL) | 36.92% |
| 7 | Denmark 1st Division | 36.36% |
| 8 | Iran Azadegan League | 35.42% |
| 9 | England League Two | 34.78% |
| 10 | Argentina Primera C | 34.75% |
SI Football Draw Predictions
For all the effort we put in at The Gurgler, SI can do it in about ten seconds, so why not harness the power of SI and go Head to Head against it for the Football season.
| Rank | Match | League | Draw Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Queens Park Rangers vs Swansea City | Championship | 36% |
| 2 | West Ham United vs Southampton | Championship | 35% |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers vs Wrexham | Championship | 35% |
| 4 | Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | 34% |
| 5 | Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United | Premier League | 34% |
| 6 | Oxford United vs Bradford City | League One | 34% |
| 7 | Reading vs Barnsley | League One | 33% |
| 8 | Wimbledon vs Wycombe Wanderers | League One | 33% |
| 9 | Gillingham vs Grimsby Town | League Two | 33% |
| 10 | Barnet vs Oldham Athletic | League Two | 32% |
Which Day of the Week Produces the Most Draws?
Ever wanted to know which day produces the most draws, according to our research and a little help from SI?
The answer is Sunday.
There is no widely published Europe-wide dataset that breaks down draw rates by day of the week across all major leagues, so any answer is necessarily based on long-term fixture scheduling patterns rather than an official UEFA statistic.
For the major leagues in England and Europe (Premier League, Championship, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1, Primeira Liga, Eredivisie, etc.), I would rank them as follows:
| Rank | Match Slot | Likelihood of Draw |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sunday games (any time) | Highest |
| 2 | Monday-Thursday games | High |
| 3 | Friday night games | Slightly above average |
| 4 | Saturday night games | Around average |
| 5 | Saturday day games | Lowest |
Why Sunday games tend to produce more draws
- Sunday fixtures often feature:
- Derby matches.
- Matches between stronger teams selected for television.
- Clubs managing player fatigue after European competition.
- Games between evenly matched opponents naturally generate more drawn results than mismatched fixtures.
- Across Europe’s major leagues, roughly one quarter of matches end in a draw, with many top divisions sitting around the 24-29% range.
Why Monday-Thursday games rank highly
- These are usually:
- TV-selected fixtures.
- Rescheduled matches.
- Derby or high-interest encounters.
- Teams often take a more cautious approach in standalone televised games.
Friday night games
- Slightly higher draw tendency because:
- Teams are usually well-rested.
- Managers sometimes prioritize avoiding defeat at the start of a matchweek.
- Many leagues use Friday nights for competitive, relatively balanced fixtures.
Saturday night games
- Mixed profile.
- Can include both title contenders and mid-table clashes.
- Generally sit close to the league average draw rate.
Why Saturday daytime games are usually lowest
- This is where most fixtures are played.
- The fixture pool contains the greatest number of mismatched games (top vs bottom, promotion contenders vs strugglers, etc.).
- More mismatches generally means more winners and fewer draws.
If I had to assign a rough draw probability to each slot
| Match Slot | Typical Draw Probability |
|---|---|
| Sunday | 28-31% |
| Monday-Thursday | 27-30% |
| Friday Night | 26-29% |
| Saturday Night | 25-28% |
| Saturday Day | 23-26% |
For draw betting, many professional football analysts specifically target Sunday fixtures involving mid-table teams, as these often feature the most balanced matchups and historically produce a slightly above-average draw frequency. The underlying baseline is that most major European leagues record draw rates of roughly one in four matches (about 25-30%).
Why Local Derbies Produce More Draws
We asked our friendly SI thing whether local derbies produce more draws and, if so, why. It was confirmed they do, with some evidence below to share.
SI RESPONSE
Yes, historical data shows that local derbies in English football produce a higher proportion of draws than regular matches.
Long-term statistical studies of the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) reveal several key factors explaining why local rivalries lean towards stalemates:
Key Statistical Trends in Derbies
Higher Draw Frequency: In multi-decade studies of Premier League fixtures, derby matches have consistently yielded a higher draw rate compared to non-derby games. While standard league fixtures historically end in a draw roughly 24%–26% of the time, that figure rises in local derby match-ups.
Lower Goal Returns: Derby matches produce slightly fewer goals on average than non-derby fixtures. The tighter, more cagey nature of these games leads to a higher frequency of low-scoring draws (0{-}0 and 1{-}1).
Higher Disciplinary Action: Derbies average roughly one-third more booking points (yellow and red cards) than typical league fixtures, reflecting higher aggression and tactical fouling that interrupts the flow of play.
Why Derbies End in Draws More Often
1. Tactical Conservatism & “Fear of Losing”: For managers, players, and supporters, losing a local derby causes significant psychological fallout. As a result, teams often prioritize defensive stability and avoiding defeat over taking excessive risks to win.
2. Narrowing Quality Gaps: Form and league standing often lose predictive power in derbies. The underperforming or weaker team frequently plays above their usual standard due to heightened emotion, while the stronger side faces intense pressure, causing the performance levels of both teams to converge.
3. Reduced Home Advantage: Because derby rivals are based in the same city or neighboring towns, away teams face less travel fatigue, and away fan presence is often more vocal and aggressive than in standard away fixtures. This slightly dampens the standard home-field edge.
Source: This article was reproduced with permission from The Gurgler. All credit for the original content belongs to the original publisher.