Looking for the best football draw predictions this weekend? We’ve analysed fixtures from England and Europe’s top leagues to find the strongest draw candidates, combining form, head-to-head records, draw trends and a healthy dose of opinion to uncover value where others only see stalemates.
Discover the best football draw predictions with data-driven analysis, opinion, draw trends, and expert picks from England & Europe’s top leagues. And leagues that aren’t quite as top.
They say there can only be winners and losers in sport, but of course they’re wrong and they’re fools, there’s always another result, a special one for learned sporting fans – the draw. And who doesn’t love a draw where no one loses? The real winners include canny punters who look for value, and The Gurgler website is always happy to help with predictions, opinion and stats, so welcome to our Football Draw Predictions Weekly for another weekend of balanced football.
Our resident draw expert Frankington Stanley runs his keen eye over the many football divisions around the world to find the best draws for you. He’s sort of like the John West of football draws, he hates Dog Salmon and lop-sided fixtures. The fewer the goals the better too.
Frankington Stanley is not fussy, no country or continent is out of bounds, and the more obscure the better. And some of them are quite obscure, just the way he likes it. So enjoy another weekly serving of the finest Football Draw Predictions from all over the world, where The Gurgler and Frankington Stanley take the stale out of stalemate.
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DRAW OF THE WEEK
England » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Crystal Palace-Nottingham Forest
Kick off: 14:00 Date: Sun, 11-Oct-26
Stats: The last three games, six of the last seven, and seven of the last nine games between these sides have ended in a draw. Interestingly, in that run of nine games, Nottingham Forest won the other two games. The last five games between Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest at Selhurst Park have ended in a draw. Four of them were 1-1. There have been twice as many draws as either side have had wins at Selhurst Park.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1 Nottingham Forest 1
OTHER FOOTBALL DRAW PREDICTIONS
England » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Aston Villa-Brentford
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 10-Oct-26
Stats: Brentford won both games v Aston Villa 1-0 last season so goals are low. Last season’s win for Brentford at Aston Villa was their first in 12 attempts, although there were a lot of draws (7) in between. Aston Villa are undefeated on a Saturday at home to Brentford – two wins but importantly five draws. The last four Saturday games at Villa were draws. Brentford have drawn both of their away games so far this season. Aston Villa have lost both of their home games this season.
Prediction: Aston Villa 1 Brentford 1
England » Championship – 2026/2027 » Southampton-Portsmouth
Kick off: 12:00 Date: Sun, 11-Oct-26
Stats: A potentially feisty local derby – the 12pm Sunday kick off is a pretty good sign. And we asked AI if Local Derbies do see more draws than regular matches, and they agreed. We have a section on Local Derby draws at the end. Back to this game specifically, four of the last five games between these sides have ended in a draw. Neither has seen much draw form this season, Southampton are 4/4 at home this season, but at least Portsmouth are on a two-game run of draws. Obviously warming up for this game.
Prediction: Southampton 1 Portsmouth 1
England » League One – 2026/2027 » Milton Keynes Dons-Reading
Kick off: 15:00 Date: Sat, 10-Oct-26
Stats: Milton Keynes have drawn 6 of their seven games this season, and as a Wimbledon fan I am not able to tip them to win. For the draws, it also helps that they have drawn all three home games so far. Reading are D2 L1 away from home, so their away form is even worse. Both have drawn 0-0 with AFC Wimbledon this season.
Prediction: Milton Keynes 0 Reading 0
England » League Two – 2026/2027 » Swindon-Crewe
Kick off: 12:30 Date: Sat, 10-Oct-26
Stats: AI tells us that League Two is the draw-iest league in Europe, and Crewe Alexandra (great name) have drawn 6 of their 9 games so far this season, including a healthy three of four away. It also helps that two of the last three games between these sides at this weekend’s ground also ended in a draw. Prior to winning their match Crewe drew their previous 6 games and three away games. Swindon are unbeaten at home (W3 D1) and Crewe are unbeaten away (W1 D3). Everyone wins with a draw.
Prediction: Swindon 1 Crewe 1
Spain » LaLiga – 2026/2027 » Racing Santander-Valencia
Kick off: 20:00 Date: Sun, 11-Oct-26
Stats: The last two games between these sides at Racing Santander have ended in a draw.
Prediction: Racing Santander 1 Valencia 1
Italy » Serie A – 2026/2027 » Lecce-Bologna
Kick off: 14:00 Date: Sun, 11-Oct-26
Stats: The last three games between these teams at Lecce have ended in a draw, with a good spread of 2-2, 0-0 and 1-1. Actually 6 of the last 9 clashes between these teams at Lecce have been a draw. Lecce haven’t drawn yet this season in Serie A, so are due. Bologna are 16th and just above relegation but have drawn two of their last three matches.
Prediction: Lecce 0 Bologna 0
Germany » Bundesliga – 2026/2027 » FC Koln-Borussia M.Gladbach
Kick off: 14:30 Date: Sun, 11-Oct-26
Stats: Two of the last three games between these sides have ended in a draw, both 3-3 which should be plenty entertaining. Two of the last three at FC Koln have also ended in a draw. Aside from Borussia Mönchengladbach having a great name, and who doesn’t love an umlaut? They have also lost all four games in the Bundesliga so far, so a draw is a good result, and despite their poor form their games have at least seen 22 goals across the four games. Helping the cause is FC Koln drawing their last home game to get in the mood, and their four games have seen 15 goals too.
Prediction: FC Koln 3 Borussia M.Gladbach 3
Egypt » Premier League – 2026/2027 » Smouha SC-Ghazl Al Mahalla
Kick off: 18:00 Date: Mon, 12-Oct-26
Stats: The last game between these sides ended 0-0. Even better, three of the last 6 games at Smouha have ended in a draw, alternating between draw and not, and the sequence is back to draw. These teams are sitting 16th and 20th, so a draw looks prime. Not the goals though.
Prediction: Smouha SC 0 Ghazl Al Mahalla 0
DRAW STATS
Want to know which leagues draw the most in case the selections above aren’t enough? Of course you do, and so here are the draw % results from the past three seasons.
Current Draw % Major Football Leagues
| League | Matches Played | Drawn Matches | Draw % |
| League Two | 94 | 34 | 36% |
| League One | 90 | 30 | 33% |
| English Premier League | 50 | 16 | 32% |
| EFL Championship | 95 | 29 | 31% |
| Eredivisie | 63 | 16 | 25% |
| Ligue 1 | 76 | 19 | 25% |
| La Liga | 69 | 17 | 25% |
| Primeira Liga | 68 | 16 | 24% |
| Serie A | 50 | 11 | 22% |
| Scottish Premiership | 42 | 9 | 21% |
| Bundesliga | 36 | 7 | 19% |
| Belgian Pro League | 63 | 10 | 16% |
Top 10 Draw % Other Football Leagues
| Rank | League | Draw % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saudi Arabia Division 1 | 45.28% |
| 2 | Iran Azadegan League | 43.75% |
| 3 | Italy Serie C (Group A) | 41.77% |
| 4 | South Africa PSL | 40.35% |
| 5 | Cyprus First Division | 39.29% |
| 6 | Denmark Division 1 | 38.89% |
| 7 | Qatar Stars League | 37.50% |
| 8 | Iran Persian Gulf Pro League | 37.29% |
| 9 | France Ligue 2 | 36.51% |
| 10 | Argentina Primera C | 35.32% |
AI Football Draw Predictions
For all the effort we put in at The Gurgler, AI can do it in about ten seconds, so why not harness the power of AI and go Head to Head against it for the Football season.
| Rank | Fixture | League |
| 1 | Swansea vs Norwich | Championship |
| 2 | Dundee United vs Hibernian | Scottish Premiership |
| 3 | RC Lens vs Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 4 | Stevenage vs Wigan | League One |
| 5 | GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam | Eredivisie |
| 6 | RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 7 | Genoa vs Fiorentina | Serie A |
| 8 | West Brom vs Birmingham | Championship |
| 9 | Moreirense vs Gil Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| 10 | Notts County vs Oxford United | League One |
Why Local Derbies Produce More Draws
We asked our friendly AI thing, asking if and/or why local derbies produce more draws. It was confirmed they do, with some evidence below to share.
AI RESPONSE
Yes, historical data shows that local derbies in English football produce a higher proportion of draws than regular matches.
Long-term statistical studies of the Premier League and English Football League (EFL) reveal several key factors explaining why local rivalries lean towards stalemates:
Key Statistical Trends in Derbies
Higher Draw Frequency: In multi-decade studies of Premier League fixtures, derby matches have consistently yielded a higher draw rate compared to non-derby games. While standard league fixtures historically end in a draw roughly 24%–26% of the time, that figure rises in local derby match-ups.
Lower Goal Returns: Derby matches produce slightly fewer goals on average than non-derby fixtures. The tighter, more cagey nature of these games leads to a higher frequency of low-scoring draws (0{-}0 and 1{-}1).
Higher Disciplinary Action: Derbies average roughly one-third more booking points (yellow and red cards) than typical league fixtures, reflecting higher aggression and tactical fouling that interrupts the flow of play.
Why Derbies End in Draws More Often
1. Tactical Conservatism & “Fear of Losing”: For managers, players, and supporters, losing a local derby causes significant psychological fallout. As a result, teams often prioritize defensive stability and avoiding defeat over taking excessive risks to win.
2. Narrowing Quality Gaps: Form and league standing often lose predictive power in derbies. The underperforming or weaker team frequently plays above their usual standard due to heightened emotion, while the stronger side faces intense pressure, causing the performance levels of both teams to converge.
3. Reduced Home Advantage: Because derby rivals are based in the same city or neighboring towns, away teams face less travel fatigue, and away fan presence is often more vocal and aggressive than in standard away fixtures. This slightly dampens the standard home-field edge.
Source: This article was reproduced with permission from The Gurgler. All credit for the original content belongs to the original publisher.